[portia2]

Hi

J86. AKQ532. A53. K. (Dummy)

AQ5. 84. KT8642. A2 (Declarer)

Contract 3NT. MPs. Club lead leaving one stopper in declarer's hand. I started with hearts as there are better odds of a 3/2 break than a 2/2 one. Are there other factors in play? (In fact hearts split 4-1 and diamonds 2-2). How should you play this hand?

Thanks

[ahydra]

Converted to hand diagram:

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I'd play on hearts first. If they split 5-0, then switch to diamonds. If they split 4-1, knock out the long heart (throw Qx spades) then turn your attention to diamonds - you can stll pick the suit up if they're 2-2, or if you guess correctly when LHO drops a singleton Q or J under the ace.

Suspect however we may not get a good score for this as a number of people will be in 6H or 6D.

ahydra

[The_Badger]

hi portia2,

A 4-0 split in ♦ is 10%, and even a 4-0 split with East you can make 3 tricks, so 95% chance of 5 or 6 tricks

♦A first.

4-1 split in ♥s is 28%, 5-0 is 4% so ♥ will roll in 68% of the time.

Usually in these situations it's best to go for the longer combined suit with top honours.

Postscript: ahydra says quite rightly Suspect however we may not get a good score for this as a number of people will be in 6H or 6D.

If that is the case and you feel that everyone else is in a slam, you may have to play it differently on the assumption that there are bad breaks for the slam and the slam doesn't make, because 3NT needs to make then for a plus score.

[nullve]

If hearts split 3-2, it doesn't matter which suit you try first, so you may as well assume they don't split 3-2 and play on diamonds first.

[alok c]

Play small ♦ from dummy & insert ♦ 10 if Rho plays low to cater to a 4carder ♦ in Rho's hand it improves the odd of bringing 5tricks.

[MrAce]

Win the ♣ in dummy and cash ♦ A and play another diamond to K unless LHO dropped an honor.

a-If diamonds are providing 6 tricks, you have 6d+2cl+1sp+3h tricks. At this point you cash all your diamonds and club A coming down to last 5 cards. Dummy holding 1 spade and AKQx ♥. If hearts are 3-2 you make 13 tricks. If hearts are 4-1 and RHO has 4 of them, you take 12 tricks if spade K does not drop when you play spade from dummy. If LHO has 4 hearts, you will have to decide whether he was squeezed and left stiffed his spade K or spade finesse working for 13th trick.

b-Assume diamonds did not break 2-2 but 3-1 either way. Even if hearts are 3-2 you make 6h+2d+2cl+ 1 or 2 spade for 12 tricks. So you need to knock down the diamonds. If they take 3rd diamond and play club, win in hand and cash diamonds and play like in scenario a. If RHO wins and plays a spade, win with A instead of finesse because hearts split 3-2 is better odds than % 50 finesse. Cash diamonds.

c-If diamonds are 4-0 and East has 4 of them, play 2nd diamond and duck if East inserts Q or J. Win whatever he plays, go to dummy with a heart, and play 3rd diamond and cash diamonds to perform same play in scenario a. If WEST has 4 diamonds, I may seriously consider ducking a heart at this point incase 4-1 heart. That would give me 5h+2d+2cl+1sp=10 tricks instead of 11 tricks when 3-2 hearts. But if hearts are 3-2 11 tricks still losing to those who played 4♥ making +2 or who played 6♥. But at the end I would still go for 3-2 hearts when see West has 4 diamonds. Cash AKQ of hearts, see the 1-4 break and take spade finesse. You make 2sp (regardless of finesse worked or not) +3h+2d+2cl.

[MrAce]

 alok c, on 2016-September-02, 04:41, said:

Play small ♦ from dummy & insert ♦ 10 if Rho plays low to cater to a 4carder ♦ in Rho's hand it improves the odd of bringing 5tricks.

Thinking before you post something helps. You don't really want to be a candidate for the worst player ever in human history.

 MrAce, on 2016-September-02, 05:03, said:

Win the ♣ in dummy and cash ♦ A and play another diamond to K unless LHO dropped an honor.

c-If diamonds are 4-0 and East has 4 of them, play 2nd diamond and duck if East inserts Q or J. Win whatever he plays, go to dummy with a heart, and play 3rd diamond and .......

[Zelandakh]

This seems really easy so it probably isn't. We have 8 top tricks and in diamonds a decent chance of +4 and a very good chance of +3. In hearts we have a good chance of +3. So diamonds looks to be a clearly better option. If diamonds are 4-0 we have time to switch plans, otherwise establish them and then switch to hearts. In the specific case of hearts 4-1 and diamonds 2-2 it seems that either plan will lead to 12 tricks unless there is a major suit squeeze or reason to place the ♠K with East, in which case playing on diamonds first might provide a 13th trick.

[nullve]

 MrAce, on 2016-September-02, 05:03, said:

. If hearts are 3-2 you make 13 tricks. If hearts are 4-1 and RHO has 4 of them, you take 12 tricks if spade K does not drop when you play spade from dummy. If LHO has 4 hearts, you will have to decide whether he was squeezed and left stiffed his spade K or spade finesse working for 13th trick.

Even better: Play the ♠J from dummy early, intending to rise with the A and play for the automatic squeeze if East doesn't cover.

[MrAce]

 nullve, on 2016-September-02, 05:19, said:

Even better: Play the ♠J from dummy early, intending to rise with the A and play for the automatic squeeze if East doesn't cover.

Yes that is even better.

[msjennifer]

 alok c, on 2016-September-02, 04:41, said:

Play small ♦ from dummy & insert ♦ 10 if Rho plays low to cater to a 4carder ♦ in Rho's hand it improves the odd of bringing 5tricks.

It looks as though you have NOT played bridge for 45 years rather than the other way round.
DA and duck the next.Hearts will break if they are 3/2 always.This way you can cater 4/0 with West void.East will have to put up an honor which you duck and finesse his other honor later.If East is void in D you can easily switch back to hearts and duck a round catering for4/1 break.And if both suits fail you have the spade finesse in reserve for the 9 th trick.

[fourdad]

duck a diamond.....5D, 2C, 3H and a spade minimum unless diamonds are 4-0.

[aawk]

Because you are not in slam you will have a bad score even if you make +4.

The best chance for a good score is that slam will be set due to bad distribution in d and or h with K of s on the wrong side.

So i would take a finess in s for a 100 % 9+ tricks and at the bar i would ask my partner why we did not bid slam.

[alok c]

 msjennifer, on 2016-September-03, 05:27, said:

It looks as though you have NOT played bridge for 45 years rather than the other way round.
DA and duck the next.Hearts will break if they are 3/2 always.This way you can cater 4/0 with West void.East will have to put up an honor which you duck and finesse his other honor later.If East is void in D you can easily switch back to hearts and duck a round catering for4/1 break.And if both suits fail you have the spade finesse in reserve for the 9 th trick.

Thank you for your kind words.I did'nt know that some posters are so keen to insult fellow posters by even going back to their profile data & mocking the information given for a mere slip of mind which was quite obvious.As a much more elderly person wish you good luck in your endeavour.

[kenberg]

We cannot do anything about those who are in slam. If it makes, as it probably does, they beat us no matter how we play the hand. If slam goes down, we beat them no matter how we play the hand. We have to find a way to beat those people, if any exist, who are not in slam. If everyone is in slam just go on to the next board to find your matchpoints.

Ok, if they are not in slam, where are they? Maybe in 4H? If hearts are 4-1, we have a shot at them. Diamond ace, restricted choice if an honor falls, otherwise A then K, this is not the time for safety plays. Added: Of course if rho shows out on the second D I duck. Yes.

Now let's hope the spade finesse is off and that those playing 4H got a spade lead. If hearts are 4-1, they get 11 tricks in hearts. We get at least 12 tricks in NT. If the spade K lies with the long hearts, we have 13 tricks.

I can't do anything about the bidding, and I can't do anything about how the bridge gods laid out the deal. That's all past tense. But if another pair is not in slam perhaps I can beat them Most likely, although not very likely, seems to be that they are in 4H, and hearts are 4-1.

At any rate, I would try to play this hand to beat those who are not in slam, if any such pair exists.

[Phil]

 MrAce, on 2016-September-02, 05:08, said:

Thinking before you post something helps. You don't really want to be a candidate for the worst player ever in human history.

Dude don't be this way. Really over the top.

[MrAce]

 Phil, on 2016-September-03, 12:29, said:

Dude don't be this way. Really over the top.

When someone says you should play small from dummy and insert T when holding Axx vs KTxxxx, at MP, having entries to both hands, and especially when another poster already wrote how to deal with 4-0 break, I was actually pretty polite and accurate to tell this comment was made without thinking and playing small to T without cashing an honor is pretty much a good candidate for being the worst play in history, considering it is MP.

At least it is not as over the top as showing the door to posters by starting the "wrong forum" comments, for much less nonsense than this.

[alok c]

 MrAce, on 2016-September-02, 05:08, said:

Thinking before you post something helps. You don't really want to be a candidate for the worst player ever in human history.

Who gave you the devine authority of judging a player's position in history ? You either point out the fault or shut up.Do'nt add obnoxious adjectives which only insults a person & shows your upbringing.This is applicable to your minions also.

[kenberg]

At the risk of being repetitious.

For me, the real point here is to decide on the objective. It is impossible to go down in 3NT. You are thus beating all pairs in a failed slam, and losing to all pairs in a making slam. So how can my mp score depend on my play? If some are in hearts, not 6, and I take at leas as many tricks as they do, I score. If some are in NT, not 6, I want to take as many tricks as they do, preferably more. There is a strong possibility of 12 tricks and some possibility of 13, I want to go for that.

One problem is that if I start on hearts, playing the AK, I get the good news that the suit doesn't split. This is good news because the people who are in hearts will find it to be bad news. But, unfortunately, after cashing two hearts I have made it more difficult to take advantage of this good news.

Starting with diamonds seems clear to me, but my main point is that you should not start with anything until you set an objective. Making 3NT is not the objective. You must decide what is.