[Kaitlyn S]

 rhm, on 2017-February-07, 06:12, said:

Reminds me of the person, who stays in bed for fear of getting overrun by a bus.
It happens.

Rainer Herrmann

I don't think that's a valid argument. After all, you could say the same thing about me not wanting to open 7NT without looking at my cards because of all the bad things that could happen (it's scary!)

1) They could cash the ♠A
2) They could cash the ♥A
3) They could cash the ♦A
4) They could cash the ♣A
etc.

I thought his list of bad things that could happen were quite reasonable and the chance of one of those bad things happening was pretty good; unlike the chance of getting overrun by a bus which, I can tell you by experience being a likely candidate as a result of my eyesight, is pretty low.

That being said, I agree that you couldn't keep me quiet in third seat after two passes with that hand, even at equal vulnerability.

[fourdad]

never preempt a preempt

[rhm]

 Kaitlyn S, on 2017-February-07, 22:34, said:

I thought his list of bad things that could happen were quite reasonable and the chance of one of those bad things happening was pretty good; unlike the chance of getting overrun by a bus which, I can tell you by experience being a likely candidate as a result of my eyesight, is pretty low.

All the risks he mentions exist. But different to you I do think they are pretty small. That's why I made the comparison.

 gszes, on 2017-February-06, 07:51, said:

there are so many bad things that can happen if we bid 2s it is scary.
1. how do we ever shut partner up if they have a great hand.

Why would I want to?
I gave examples of hands previously, which shows that the sky is the limit, once we have a fit.
Just to remind you I would find it pretty difficult to reach 6♠ even after overcalling 2♠ when partner holds something like ♠Kxxx ♥x ♦Axx ♣AQxxx and this is not an exceptional "great hand".
Of course partners hand need not fit ours so well, but the potential of our hand is quite high. If our admittedly few HCP were quacks I could understand the point.
By the way partner can see the vulnerability as well.

Quote

2. we might end up missing a great heart fit to play an iffy spade fit.

This is a fallacy. This an argument for overcalling 2♠ not for passing.
As I pointed out in previous emails your chances missing hearts increase when you pass compared to bidding 2♠, in particular when next hand will raise or jump raise diamonds.
If partner has enough to come in with a heart overcall over your pass, he will come in over a 2♠ overcall.
The opposite does not hold.
If partner is too weak to come in over pass from you he might still bid once you show values with an overcall.

Quote

3. do we really want to encourage a spade lead if the opps get to 3n?

I see little wrong encouraging a spade lead. Of course as usual there will be deals where another lead will be better.
But given this hand I think suggesting spades looks right not wrong. Partner is still allowed to look at his hand before putting a spade on the table against 3NT.
Whatever the merits there will be many deals, where a spade will be required against 3NT. Do you expect one from partner if you pass?

Quote

4. not vulnerable does not mean invulnerable.

A very good point, but appropriate for some other hand on some different deal.
The irony is that his last point is quite appropriate for his own strategy:

 gszes, on 2017-February-06, 07:51, said:

it is not just the above but honestly if lho makes preemptive noise how high would u be willing to bid if partner passes? I would back in with 3/4 spades over 3/4 diamonds

Now if partner has no spade support good luck!.

The major danger I see:
As always when you come in with substandard HCP the deal could be a misfit with partner having just enough to suggest game in notrumps.
I bet against that outcome.

As I said previously overcalling 2♠ can backfire, but my whole point is that I believe passing here has higher risks than bidding.
Vulnerability and scoring have a profound effect on this.

Rainer Herrmann

[Tramticket]

There is another potential problem. Next time the opps pre-empt 2♦, you will hold a chunky 17 count and bid 2♠. It would be a shame if partner passed - making allowances for your super-light overcalls over a pre-empt.

[rhm]

 Tramticket, on 2017-February-08, 06:03, said:

There is another potential problem. Next time the opps pre-empt 2♦, you will hold a chunky 17 count and bid 2♠. It would be a shame if partner passed - making allowances for your super-light overcalls over a pre-empt.

I never said he should.
Compare it to opening bids.
They got lighter and lighter over the last half century.
But the puzzle is requirement for a response also got lighter.

Sometimes you will just not make your contract, but this is not necessarily the end of the world.
It does happen, but not too often, because few opponents keep quiet either, when you and partner are minimum.
Also your undertricks in white may still translate into a good score or you may have overbid, but you find a lucky lie of the cards or you may get some help from opponents. Meckwell and co make a living form that.

It is as simple as that. It is a bidder's game.

Rainer Herrmann

[quiddity]

I agree more with Rainer than with the people who think it's crazy. It feels close. So, not silly or excellent and probably not normal.

[msjennifer]

Will it not be more sensible to make a T O D instead of 2S overcall? After all there is fit for both majors.and only a 7 loser hand!!!!!

[Winstonm]

I think the correct issue is not being discussed and that is what does the partnership agree upon as justified action? By itself this is a really difficult problem if we are looking for the best result on this board - but taking the long view, what is the best action for the session, the next session, and the one after that?

Any time we go rogue or try a hero play, we chip away at partnership trust. It doesn't take long for this to destroy a partnership.

I don't know the best answer to this hand other than to say whatever style the partnership has agree upon is the right one.

[mycroft]

I think if you compete with this hand, you have to double with the "sound, but not huge" hands that get to be the top end of my overcalls. Light, shapely overcalls will work for you, but you pay off on the other end.

Preempts do their job; it's just a matter of which hands you want the preempt to pooch you out of.

[helene_t]

 Kaitlyn S, on 2017-February-06, 12:53, said:

Silly. LHO might bid 3NT and partner could double thinking that LHO is psyching.

at these colours he probably wouldn't psyche unless he thinks the field is in slam. Otherwise five down undoubled would be terrible at mps.

[SteveMoe]

Easy pass. More bidding expected. Better placed to act next round.

[WGF_Flame]

With extra A i would still pass but would understand people who bids.

[rhm]

 WGF_Flame, on 2017-February-12, 01:55, said:

With extra A i would still pass but would understand people who bids.

And I guess you would need all aces before you would consider a bid red versus white, but would reject it.
You would of course understand why some others less gifted people might bid.

Some players never learn how much colors should influence their decision what to do.

Rainer Herrmann

[WGF_Flame]

 rhm, on 2017-February-12, 06:11, said:

And I guess you would need all aces before you would consider a bid red versus white, but would reject it.
You would of course understand why some others less gifted people might bid.

Some players never learn how much colors should influence their decision what to do.

Rainer Herrmann

Colors are important, but this doesnt mean you should get crazy because of the colors. bidding here is either lack of bridge understanding or an ego bid, or both.

[WesleyC]

 WGF_Flame, on 2017-February-12, 09:24, said:

Colors are important, but this doesnt mean you should get crazy because of the colors. bidding here is either lack of bridge understanding or an ego bid, or both.

Or perhaps it shows a partnership understanding that (especially at favourable VUL) being very active with a shapely Major oriented hands and a shortage in the opponents suit is winning bridge!

For a change I agree with rhm!

[WGF_Flame]

 WesleyC, on 2017-February-12, 22:05, said:

Or perhaps it shows a partnership understanding that (especially at favourable VUL) being very active with a shapely Major oriented hands and a shortage in the opponents suit is winning bridge!

For a change I agree with rhm!

I think this is a good idea, but not at this situation where the opponents opened weak.
Also this hand has 5-4 in majors, its not a hand i want to decide that we play the spade suit, i would be more then happy to hear partner bid hearts.

[nullve]

 rhm, on 2017-February-12, 06:11, said:

Some players never learn how much colors should influence their decision what to do.

What's the worst hand with 6412 shape you'd overcall 2♠ on?

[rhm]

 nullve, on 2017-February-14, 07:53, said:

What's the worst hand with 6412 shape you'd overcall 2♠ on?

For high level trump contracts HCP are not a good yardstick, but controls matter.
I have shown how little I need for game or slam.
Some have interpreted my call as preemptive, which it is not.
It is constructive and it is a matter of hand evaluation.
Though I can not go any lower (I would not wait for the major suit 9s), I say again bidding has much more to gain.

I can provide some statistical evidence:

A priory your game chances with 64 in the majors and 21 in the minors is already 43%
Since you hold about as much in HCP than RHO, who opened a vulnerable weak two, there is no evidence that these a priory odds have changed much.
If at all it has improved, because most of the values in our shortage seem to be held by opponents.

A priory our chances for an 8 card fit with this distribution is a whopping 92% and the chance for a 9 card fit is still higher than 50%, not likely to be in clubs.
The fact that RHO has opened a weak two in our shortage has improved those odds.

There is no guarantee that I will buy lucky, but this game rarely comes with guarantees.

What am I worried about white on red?

Let's assume you pass and next hand bids 3NT would you feel comfortable?
I would not, because they might make 3NT and we might make 4♠ or 4♠ could be cheap.

Rainer Herrmann

[Phil]

 rhm, on 2017-February-15, 04:13, said:

Let's assume you pass and next hand bids 3NT would you feel comfortable?

If 3N is,bid by my LHO I have mixed feelings. If its based on a diamond fit and a 12 count. If its a 19 count and thinks 3N can be made on power without a diamond fit then Im glad im a chicken.

Equally im not feeling great about a 3N call by the my partner.

[quiddity]

 rhm, on 2017-February-15, 04:13, said:

Though I can not go any lower (I would not wait for the major suit 9s), I say again bidding has much more to gain.

This seems inconsistent to me. If bidding has much more to gain then you should be willing to go lower. The fact that you can't go lower seems to indicate that the decision is close.