Cyberyeti, on 2019-June-06, 14:07, said:
Because you'll miss a slam pretty frequently as 4♠ can easily be KQJ10xxxx(x) and out partner with Ax, xxxxx, xxx, KJx might think he needs all those cards and possibly more to make 4♠ rather than for the grand to be with the odds.
Bridge is a game of percentages. Yes, bidding 4S immediately could miss a slam. However, the odds of our having a slam will be low, once RHO has opened. In essence we need RHO to have a minimum range opening and partner to hold more than his share of the missing hip, and for him to hold the right hcp. Now, obviously there are even lower percentage layouts where slam is good. However, I’d guess that slam will be good on fewer than 10% of plausible layouts.
So far , maybe still worth catering to, if there is no significant downside. But having a slam be a viable contract is not at all the same as being able to bid most of the good slams while staying low enough on the poor fits. I doubt that there would be many good slams where even an expert pair would reliably reach them, bidding without peeking at the hands.thats why I laughed at the poster who argued that 4S would miss a slam when partner has only the club king....even if one made it the club KJx, nobody is bidding slam, knowing what they were doing, unless they have a wire on the hand.
As against that, consider the benefits of an immediate 4S. Yes, it virtually gives up on slams, but in the meantime it lays a trap for the opponents, who don’t know you don’t have KQJ10xxxx and out. You may play 4S doubled, after rho reopens and Lho has nowhere to go. You may push them to the 5-level when you weren’t making, or when they go for a number greater than your game. And if they bid at the 5-level, and you double, your partner will usually do the right thing, be that bid or pass.
Plus, you will be a tough opponent.
People who ‘bid by the book’, or who are terrified that they might miss a 5% chance to bid a good slam, can look good on a bidding panel, but imo rarely win. Because bridge is a game about making winning decisions with, in most cases, imperfect information. For my money, 4S is the bridge bid, even at imps but beyond doubt at MPs, where you can pick up this hand 20 sessions in a row and get to a good slam maybe once, while creating zero problems for the opps,
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari