[phoenixmj]

---

I played a hand yesterday at 6 no trump. I have 11 tricks cold - including the ace of clubs. My only chance for a 12th trick is to get 2 club tricks while only losing at most 1 trick.

I think I was lucky in that I made the contract on a "good" guess - but I don't think I played this suit correctly. Neither opp had bid and there were very few points out.

What is the best way to play this combination?

Thanks in advance for your help. Transportation to and from board was not an issue so I could have played it any way.

[cencio]

With a software called suitplay: playing Q you have 4 tricks on 1,21%, and 3 tricks on 76%

[johnu]

Double finesse succeeds about 3 out of 4 times unless you have more information about the opponents' hands (e.g. if North opened the bidding and is likely to hold the king).

Leading the queen first could pick up singleton jack offside so you can avoid a club loser. Otherwise you can lead to the queen, and if the queen loses, finesse for the jack.

There's no chance of a defensive error leading the queen first. You can't calculate the odds of an error unless you can see both declarer and dummy hands and previous tricks. If you lead low to the queen (or away from the ace depending on who is dummy) some players will play the king if they have it. If they don't play the king, finesse for the jack, and if that loses, you have to finesse for the king. 3 out of 4 rate of success if the opponent always ducks the king, otherwise better than that.

[Cyberyeti]

ALso depend if you can eliminate, running the Q is 100% if you only have these and 1+ trumps in each hand.

[cherdano]

Against bad opponents you run the ♣7, and run the Q if that loses to the J. Wins when North has J or South has K or North goes up with the K from Kx(xx).

[phoenixmj]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-October-10, 12:39, said:

ALso depend if you can eliminate, running the Q is 100% if you only have these and 1+ trumps in each hand.

sorry - i misstated the contract. It was 6NT. I think I was wishing it had been spades:)

Anyway - no elimination play available.

I played the 7 to the queen and lost to the king. Then - opp led a club and I had to decide whether to take with the ace or finesse. Law of restricted choice led me to believe that north had the jack, but as I thought about it I just decided that south's lead of that suit meant that he knew the jack was out there. Anyway, I decided to play low and took the trick without playing my ace. So, I got my 2 clubs and made 6.

Many players were in 6NT - and most made it - so I thought the odds must be better playing one way vs. another. It is at a regional tournament - so I looked at all of the people who played the hand and only about 5 in the field went down at 6NT. I was surprised that so many people would have guessed right. I though law of restrictive choice would imply that if one has the jack, the other has the king. If that is the case here, seems like you cannot get 2 tricks without losing 2 first.

[smerriman]

phoenixmj, on 2019-October-10, 21:41, said:

I though law of restrictive choice would imply that if one has the jack, the other has the king. If that is the case here, seems like you cannot get 2 tricks without losing 2 first.

Restricted choice only applies when the cards are *equals*, and the person playing the honor could have played the other one with exactly the same outcome. It doesn't apply at all to this situation.

[phoenixmj]

smerriman, on 2019-October-10, 21:49, said:

Restricted choice only applies when the cards are *equals*, and the person playing the honor could have played the other one with exactly the same outcome. It doesn't apply at all to this situation.

Thanks for this info. I just did a bit of reading. I had always thought it meant that the odds were that if west had the king - it was likely that east had the othe nissing honor.

[johnu]

phoenixmj, on 2019-October-11, 09:05, said:

Thanks for this info. I just did a bit of reading. I had always thought it meant that the odds were that if west had the king - it was likely that east had the othe nissing honor.

You might want to google the theory of vacant spaces.