[thepossum]

Curious that the small spade is the killer

[jillybean]

 smerriman, on 2023-May-04, 16:13, said:

This is a really good example of why it's extremely dangerous to look at double dummy scores, backing up what you pointed out in the other thread. Double dummy says that West leading a low spade at trick 1 is the only way to defeat the contract.

If West instead leads a heart - whether the 9 or low - the contract is makeable.. by winning in dummy and immediately leading low to the ten of clubs! If a declarer did that I'd be pretty suspicious

Why are we talking about heart leads? 5/6 pairs led a ♦ against NT, making +1,2,3
We were comparing these results to the pair who lead a small ♠ -1

[smerriman]

 jillybean, on 2023-May-04, 19:13, said:

Why are we talking about heart leads? 5/6 pairs led a ♦ against NT, making +1,2,3
We were comparing these results to the pair who lead a small ♠ -1

Well, the thread moved on a bit since then But the main reason the pair who led the small spade took it down was because declarer ducked, after which the defense is much easier. If declarer had won, it would still be beatable double dummy, but the contract would likely have made at the table.

My comment was in reply to Mike who couldn't see the spade lead working (for that reason), but could see a heart lead beating the contract - and again, it would have beat the contract at the table, despite double dummy saying otherwise.

Both cases show the human results are really quite independent from what double dummy shows, so looking and seeing there is a 'killing spade lead' misses the point.

[mikeh]

 smerriman, on 2023-May-04, 19:41, said:

Well, the thread moved on a bit since then But the main reason the pair who led the small spade took it down was because declarer ducked, after which the defense is much easier. If declarer had won, it would still be beatable double dummy, but the contract would likely have made at the table.

My comment was in reply to Mike who couldn't see the spade lead working (for that reason), but could see a heart lead beating the contract - and again, it would have beat the contract at the table, despite double dummy saying otherwise.

Both cases show the human results are really quite independent from what double dummy shows, so looking and seeing there is a 'killing spade lead' misses the point.

In fairness, my comment about the spade lead failing was made at 4:40 am, during a brief interlude involving a bathroom break😀 I’d previously said that I thought a spade lead always set the contract, with good defence thereafter, but had forgotten that ducking the first diamond, if played from hand, allowed winning the second and playing a third.

[jillybean]

Oh, I should remember to add a to comments like "killer spade lead", I did not intend to suggest this was the optimum human lead.

I don't see how winning the first spade makes it any more difficult, E has winners in all the side suits, and 2 more spades

[smerriman]

 jillybean, on 2023-May-04, 21:36, said:

I don't see how winning the first spade makes it any more difficult, E has winners in all the side suits, and 2 more spades

I wouldn't have ducked the first diamond as East, seeing there didn't appear to be a side entry anyway.

[the hog]

Win the S, D King. Presumably East ducks. Now exit a low C. If east wins and switches to a H. Win that and play a low C. If S are continued you take 2S, 2H, 1D and 4C

[smerriman]

 the hog, on 2023-May-04, 22:47, said:

Win the S, C to dummy and low D. East has to duck. Now exit a low C. If S are continued you take 2S, 2H, 1D and 4C

Only if they play a 4th round of spades to gift you a trick with the jack. Any other defense and you're only taking 1 spade.

[the hog]

 smerriman, on 2023-May-04, 22:56, said:

Only if they play a 4th round of spades to gift you a trick with the jack. Any other defense and you're only taking 1 spade.

If they take he D ace and switch to a H you duck a C and now have 4C 2H 2D and 1S

[smerriman]

 the hog, on 2023-May-05, 03:10, said:

If they take he D ace and switch to a H you duck a C and now have 4C 2H 2D and 1S

Of course. But we're talking about them ducking the diamond, after which the contract cannot be made. It's really as simple as clicking the GIB button