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Your lead & why?
#21
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Posted 2023-May-04, 18:45
Curious that the small spade is the killer
#22
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Posted 2023-May-04, 19:13
smerriman, on 2023-May-04, 16:13, said:
This is a really good example of why it's extremely dangerous to look at double dummy scores, backing up what you pointed out in the other thread. Double dummy says that West leading a low spade at trick 1 is the only way to defeat the contract.
If West instead leads a heart - whether the 9 or low - the contract is makeable.. by winning in dummy and immediately leading low to the ten of clubs! If a declarer did that I'd be pretty suspicious
If West instead leads a heart - whether the 9 or low - the contract is makeable.. by winning in dummy and immediately leading low to the ten of clubs! If a declarer did that I'd be pretty suspicious
Why are we talking about heart leads? 5/6 pairs led a ♦ against NT, making +1,2,3
We were comparing these results to the pair who lead a small ♠ -1
"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly." MikeH
#23
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Posted 2023-May-04, 19:41
jillybean, on 2023-May-04, 19:13, said:
Why are we talking about heart leads? 5/6 pairs led a ♦ against NT, making +1,2,3
We were comparing these results to the pair who lead a small ♠ -1
We were comparing these results to the pair who lead a small ♠ -1
Well, the thread moved on a bit since then
But the main reason the pair who led the small spade took it down was because declarer ducked, after which the defense is much easier. If declarer had won, it would still be beatable double dummy, but the contract would likely have made at the table.My comment was in reply to Mike who couldn't see the spade lead working (for that reason), but could see a heart lead beating the contract - and again, it would have beat the contract at the table, despite double dummy saying otherwise.
Both cases show the human results are really quite independent from what double dummy shows, so looking and seeing there is a 'killing spade lead' misses the point.
#24
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Posted 2023-May-04, 21:33
smerriman, on 2023-May-04, 19:41, said:
Well, the thread moved on a bit since then But the main reason the pair who led the small spade took it down was because declarer ducked, after which the defense is much easier. If declarer had won, it would still be beatable double dummy, but the contract would likely have made at the table.
My comment was in reply to Mike who couldn't see the spade lead working (for that reason), but could see a heart lead beating the contract - and again, it would have beat the contract at the table, despite double dummy saying otherwise.
Both cases show the human results are really quite independent from what double dummy shows, so looking and seeing there is a 'killing spade lead' misses the point.
But the main reason the pair who led the small spade took it down was because declarer ducked, after which the defense is much easier. If declarer had won, it would still be beatable double dummy, but the contract would likely have made at the table.My comment was in reply to Mike who couldn't see the spade lead working (for that reason), but could see a heart lead beating the contract - and again, it would have beat the contract at the table, despite double dummy saying otherwise.
Both cases show the human results are really quite independent from what double dummy shows, so looking and seeing there is a 'killing spade lead' misses the point.
In fairness, my comment about the spade lead failing was made at 4:40 am, during a brief interlude involving a bathroom break😀 Id previously said that I thought a spade lead always set the contract, with good defence thereafter, but had forgotten that ducking the first diamond, if played from hand, allowed winning the second and playing a third.
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#25
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Posted 2023-May-04, 21:36
Oh, I should remember to add a 
to comments like "killer spade lead", I did not intend to suggest this was the optimum human lead.
I don't see how winning the first spade makes it any more difficult, E has winners in all the side suits, and 2 more spades
to comments like "killer spade lead", I did not intend to suggest this was the optimum human lead.I don't see how winning the first spade makes it any more difficult, E has winners in all the side suits, and 2 more spades
"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly." MikeH
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Posted 2023-May-04, 22:31
jillybean, on 2023-May-04, 21:36, said:
I don't see how winning the first spade makes it any more difficult, E has winners in all the side suits, and 2 more spades
I wouldn't have ducked the first diamond as East, seeing there didn't appear to be a side entry anyway.
#27
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Posted 2023-May-04, 22:47
Win the S, D King. Presumably East ducks. Now exit a low C. If east wins and switches to a H. Win that and play a low C. If S are continued you take 2S, 2H, 1D and 4C
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
#28
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Posted 2023-May-04, 22:56
the hog, on 2023-May-04, 22:47, said:
Win the S, C to dummy and low D. East has to duck. Now exit a low C. If S are continued you take 2S, 2H, 1D and 4C
Only if they play a 4th round of spades to gift you a trick with the jack. Any other defense and you're only taking 1 spade.
#29
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Posted 2023-May-05, 03:10
smerriman, on 2023-May-04, 22:56, said:
Only if they play a 4th round of spades to gift you a trick with the jack. Any other defense and you're only taking 1 spade.
If they take he D ace and switch to a H you duck a C and now have 4C 2H 2D and 1S
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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Posted 2023-May-05, 03:13
the hog, on 2023-May-05, 03:10, said:
If they take he D ace and switch to a H you duck a C and now have 4C 2H 2D and 1S
Of course. But we're talking about them ducking the diamond, after which the contract cannot be made. It's really as simple as clicking the GIB button