[Cyberyeti]

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What do you fancy ?

Lightner double and hope A♦ stands up
Pass
7♦

Your style is to be hyper aggressive over a potentially 2 card club, so the WJO can be as short as 4 cards. If partner has 4M, they'll be a lot weaker than the diamonds if he only has 4.

Edit: you heard opps system discussion, they are not regular partners, you know they won't be able to answer questions like "which suit do you open with 5-5 in the blacks"

[AL78]

This is a pure guess is it not? The correct answer depends on whether the slam is there, how likely is it to have been bid at other tables, whether 7♦ is a good sac if it is there, is anyone else likely to find the sac regardless of whether it is good or not, and if it is off on a club ruff, how likely across the field is East finding that lead without a Lightner double. North clearly has a powerful black two-suiter and is likely punting on a diamond void plus some spades suggested by South. My guess is to make a Lightner double and hope there is a second trick outside the club ruff, and I'm only saying that because someone did this to me in an analogous auction many years ago and it worked for them. If I'm wrong, sorry partner, next board.

[pescetom]

Is this MP?
If so I think I too would try the double.
Certainly on a Friday night.

[TMorris]

i am more inclned to think that the small slam is making. If opener is 4 2 0 7 or close to it (5 2 0 6 might be even worse for us) with solid clubs all his finesses work if needed and he will make. I might be wrong eg partner might have K of hearts but all the heart losers might go on the long clubs.

for me the question is more should I bid 7 and if I do should I bid 7 ♣ as a lead director (and will partner understand it if I do) or 7 ♦. Things like how long opener took to bid the slam are also of interest. It is unlikely to be fast but how slow......

All things being equal I think if 7 ♣ then reverting to diamonds is a lead director if they bid the grand then that is what I will do.

[akwoo]

Assuming this is a club game or not too advanced tournament, anything worse than -680 is going to be a bad score. I don't think 7D will get out for 500. So Lightner double it is - I figure I'm getting good enough matchpoints odds that it's worth it even at only 35%

[Cyberyeti]

TMorris, on 2024-January-20, 14:35, said:

i am more inclned to think that the small slam is making. If opener is 4 2 0 7 or close to it (5 2 0 6 might be even worse for us) with solid clubs all his finesses work if needed and he will make. I might be wrong eg partner might have K of hearts but all the heart losers might go on the long clubs.

for me the question is more should I bid 7 and if I do should I bid 7 ♣ as a lead director (and will partner understand it if I do) or 7 ♦. Things like how long opener took to bid the slam are also of interest. It is unlikely to be fast but how slow......

All things being equal I think if 7 ♣ then reverting to diamonds is a lead director if they bid the grand then that is what I will do.

6♠ was bid in normal tempo over the stop, definitely not slow

[mikeh]

Expert North would not bid 6S with a diamond void. South is unlimited and any hand for north that makes 6S a rational choice with a diamond void should bid 6D, intending to convert hearts (even 7H) to spades.

Thus I’d place north with something like a strong 5=1=1=6

Further, if south has any extras and a void in diamonds he might well bid 7S….he’s aware north shouldn’t have a diamond void but still expects to make slam opposite a reasonable minimum negative double. Even if he chose to pass, I’d expect some thinking with a void…although I’d be surprised if he didn’t take a moment before passing just on the unusual auction.

So, against good opps, double is high percentage. Against weak players…toss a coin but the odds would appear to favour double.

[Cyberyeti]

N much better than S, decent player but not world class

[Douglas43]

How about 7C? Downside is that it rules out 7S -1. Upside is that it rules out 7S =.

[Cyberyeti]

OK, here is what actually happened.

The big hand as MikeH predicted was AQxxx, x, x, AKQJxx. The other results on the board are equal numbers of games and making slams, so saving gets you an average. Doubling gets you a top, but what of pass ?

Partner leads K♦ from KQxx which holds, sees Kxxx, AQJx, Jx, xxx, now has to work out with x, K10xx, KQxx, xxxx that the club is getting ruffed. Not by any means impossible.

[Douglas43]

Should have added that I would prefer 6C on the previous round.

[Douglas43]

Duplication