[mikl_plkcc]

Under traditional methods, honours against shortness are wasted honours.

However, if it is something like AK against void, it can provide discards as long as the losers are slow.

On the following board, I didn't bid slam because I couldn't count 32 total points, but more than half went there, and it made because the AK provided two discards (the ♦K was on, so the only trick lost was a trump. 4 trump tricks, 2 ♦, 1 ♣, 2 ♦ discard on ♠, 3 ♣ ruffs)

North deal, all vul
♠ ♥AJ965 ♦AQ97 ♣AQ64
♠AK872 ♥T7432 ♦85 ♣9

On our table, S didn't game force, therefore N judged that there wasn't 32 total points and didn't continue beyond game. Do you think that S had a game force? If S didn't game force, should N investigate slam?

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

#1 it is a 50% small slam on a combined 24HCP count. It makes, but missing a 50% is not terrible, awful.

#2 Assuming no interference, and a 1H opening start, South has a decision and a choice to make.

The decision: is he stopping below 4H? The fast answer is No.

Now regarding his choises: Using traditional methods, he could bid 1S, 4C or 4H.

I would rule out 1S, if opener bids a minor at your 2nd turn, you are forced to bid 4H,
which is a delayed game raise, showing something approx. 15 overstating the responder hand.

I would also not like bidding 4H, this is a preemptive raise, I would make the bid without AK in
spade, assuming a 5 card major system and be done with the hand (being vul may stop me for a
second, but I would say you only live once).

I think the hand is borderline, but worth a 4C splinter raise.
I have no issues, if p says "No thanks" by bidding 4H, I have a KC and I can tell him I have the
Q of trumps.

#3 As it is, the AK opposite the shortage is also a 5 card suit, i.e. it can provide a 3rd trick,
if p happens to have a single and the suit breaks 43.

Dont ask me, what I would do as opener facing the splinter, I guess I blast, but I have messed up
more obv. seq. in the past, and will do so in the future.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[hrothgar]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-April-29, 05:46, said:

On our table, S didn't game force, therefore N judged that there wasn't 32 total points and didn't continue beyond game. Do you think that S had a game force? If S didn't game force, should N investigate slam?

Comment 1: HCPs are a really bad way to evaluate the playing strength of unbalanced hands

After a 1♥ opening bid, South knows that the partnership has a 10 card trump fit available, they hold AK fifth in Spades, and a club singleton.
In what world does South not have a game force?

Comment 2: What does South need to know for Slam to be odds on

1. Keycards and Queens
2. A slow spade loser

Comment 3: Following a 1♥ opening, I suspect that you're going to get a bunch of discussion around what is the appropriate response for South. I would expect to see support for

1♠
2NT (showing a GF raise with 4 card support)
4♣ (splinter rasise in support of Hearts)

Personally, I think that the choice of bids will depend greatly on what other agreements that you have in place.

In an ideal world, I want to be able to discover whether partner has three card support for Spades.
I would probably choose to advance 1!S, hoping to be able to establish a low level GF after either a 1NT or 2!C advance.

On this hand, with the 2!D rebid, things don't work out nearly as well.
And, the more I think about this, this has the potential to misfire badly if partner does show spade support...

There is also much to be said for making a bid that immediately sets Hearts and trumps and establishes a GF.
I suspect that I would prefer to ask rather than show, show I lean towards 2NT

[hrothgar]

P_Marlowe, on 2025-April-29, 06:14, said:

Now regarding his choises: Using traditional methods, he could bid 1S, 4C or 4H.

To me, at least, 4♥ is unthinkable

[Cyberyeti]

If S dealt and passed, 1♥-2♠ is in the frame if you play it as fit jump.

What would I do ?

Well game requires as little as xx, AKxxx, xxx, xxx to be good, so I can't see that I'm not bidding it.

1♥-2N (limit+ for us)

1♥-1♠

are the two bids in the frame if S is not a passed hand. I would probably choose the former, as usually bidding spades then raising hearts only shows 3 hearts.

[mike777]

South has awkward hand.
Probably splinter showing stiff club, limited Hcp.

North will force to slam.

[P_Marlowe]

hrothgar, on 2025-April-29, 06:40, said:

To me, at least, 4♥ is unthinkable

Well, you happened to be more positive about 1S, compared to me,
I also think 4H, is not an option, but on the Nigel scale I would
rate 4H higher than 1S, I guess with you it may be the opposite.

2NT vs. 4C ..., I guess it may matter, who is the stronger guy in
the partnership, if given the chance I prefer to let p make the
final decision / mistake.
My guess is, that 2NT more often than not will force me to make the
final decision.

In the end tell me p hand, and I tell you, which approach works better.

[shyams]

I am not sure which of North or South will take the plunge and bid a slam.

I feel like the bidding might reach 5♥ at which time North will give up & pass.

e.g.
1♥ - 4♣;
4♦ - 4♠;
5♣ - 5♥;
pass

[P_Marlowe]

shyams, on 2025-April-29, 07:52, said:

I am not sure which of North or South will take the plunge and bid a slam.

I feel like the bidding might reach 5♥ at which time North will give up & pass.

e.g.
1♥ - 4♣;
4♦ - 4♠;
5♣ - 5♥;
pass

Which is ok, it is only a 50% small slam.

[Cyberyeti]

P_Marlowe, on 2025-April-29, 09:59, said:

Which is ok, it is only a 50% small slam.

Spades 4-4, trumps 2-1 also gets you home as does any minor suit lead if you don't have 2 trump losers, practical chances are better. The best lead is a trump, but are you gonna fancy that from K or Hx

[mikl_plkcc]

Re #2, #3:

Why do you think S have a game force? Against some minimum opening with 13 points, even a game may not be makeable, if the points are concentrated in the trump suit, and some wastage against S's shortness.

I think S's hand is an invite instead.

[mike777]

 mikl_plkcc, on 2025-April-29, 11:48, said:

Re #2, #3:

Why do you think S have a game force? Against some minimum opening with 13 points, even a game may not be makeable, if the points are concentrated in the trump suit, and some wastage against S's shortness.

I think S's hand is an invite instead.

Agree South hand is gf.
Yes you may go down.
I don't think it is close, as long as South can show a minimum gf hand with a stiff club.

That fifth trump often , not always, but very often important.

[hrothgar]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-April-29, 11:48, said:

Why do you think S have a game force? Against some minimum opening with 13 points, even a game may not be makeable, if the points are concentrated in the trump suit, and some wastage against S's shortness.

I think S's hand is an invite instead.

The following url will take you to a hand generator that BBO provides
https://www.bridgeba...aler/dealer.php

Input the following script

predeal north SAK872,HT7432,D85,C9
produce 200

one_heart =

hearts(south) >=5 and
hearts(south) >= clubs(south) and
hearts(south) >= diamonds(south) and
hcp(south) >= 10

condition one_heart

action printall


Comment 1: I think that you'll find that North / South are making 4!H a whole lot more than they are going down

Comment 2: Even if N/S are going down, E/W will often be scoring more in some partial or even making game

Comment 3: Creating a GF and using up a bunch of bidding space is going to help stop E/W from finding a partial or a good sacrifice

Comment 4: Its far from clear that an invitation sequence is going to provide the right information to make a good decision

[P_Marlowe]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-April-29, 11:48, said:

Re #2, #3:

Why do you think S have a game force? Against some minimum opening with 13 points, even a game may not be makeable, if the points are concentrated in the trump suit, and some wastage against S's shortness.

I think S's hand is an invite instead.

South sees, that there are at most 3 fast trick loosers in the minor, if opener has the Ace of hearts, you will have at most 1 trump looser.
He cant have a lot in spades. And he opened the bidding.

So, yes without the Ace of hearts you may have 4 quick loosers, ... chances are 5:3 that p has the Ace of hearts. And he may have a minor
suit Ace instead, if he does not have the Ace of hearts.

I am not going to invite, I can live with a preemptive 4H raise, ... or a game force, but invite is worst than either of those two and by a large
margin.

[mycroft]

So, I used a slightly more flexible tool (python's "redeal"). [url="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mycroftw/redeal/refs/heads/mikl_55M/mfscripts/mikl_55test.py"Source is also slightly more complicated[/url] (and please feel free to nitpick)(*).

Results (and several shorter test runs show similar results):

10939 generated, 10000 accepted: [mycroft: other 1000 hands were "1NT or 2NT openers"]
Range of opener: 12-21 inclusive
Tricks: [(7, 12), (8, 138), (9, 1041), (10, 3310), (11, 3384), (12, 1797), (13, 318)],
down:game:slam: [(-1, 1191), (0, 6694), (1, 2115)]

In other words, making slam is significantly more likely than not making game.

Now, you say, if you invite, then obviously partner will go to game on "those hands", so:
10000 generated, 10000 accepted: [no 1NT openers here]
Range of opener: 12-14 inclusive
Tricks: [(7, 11), (8, 209), (9, 1669), (10, 4622), (11, 2827), (12, 624), (13, 38)],
Average score in 4HN: 494.249,
down:game:slam: [(-1, 1889), (0, 7449), (1, 662)]

So, assuming you won't accept without 15 (and you are positing a minimum opener of 13, not my "any 12"), you're missing game on 80% of hands, and slam on 7ish% of those (sure, the chance you will bid slam is pretty low, but still). So, you're giving up about 320 points/hand inviting.

Not counting the losses you have when partner does have a hand and the GF would get you to the making slam.
Or the losses you have when the opponents compete to their sacrifice.

(*) First bug found: ignored 56xx or better hands. Probably very rare given our 5 spades, but still...