Zelandakh, on 2012-December-17, 07:44, said:
1♣ = 15+ nat/bal or 18+ any
... - 2♥ = 4-5 spades, 2-3 hearts, bal, GF
2♠ = relay, usually 18+
... - 3♦ = 4333
3♥ = relay
... - 3♠ = min
4♣ = relay
... - 5♣ = 4 controls, spade control, no heart control
6♠ (it does not matter which red suit king partner has and grand odds are too low)
Interesting that sfi and I show almost exactly the same information but reach different contracts!
I showed the same as sfi, and I got to 7. I think the key is you showed a responder min, where as we didn't. I don't know how you define a min, since you are gf opposite 15, but presumably AKK is a min, and AKKQJ or the like is more? I mean given the information you have absent the min 7 is quite good. In addition to the 3-2 splits being ~48%, partner has the spade J 3/8 of the time, the red Q to go with the K 2/10 of the time, the club J 2/7 of the time and these cards will generally survive some 4-1 splits (even the T instead of J will pick up the stiff J in 4-1 splits). Add that up and that is nearly 2/3 chance of success even when a black suit doesn't split 3-2 because of the key cards above. I'd guess we are looking at something like 75% likely to make. knowing just 4333
♠K,
♣A, redK and knowing nothing about quacks.